Property Prices reached a peak ten years ago, where are we now?

It is now ten years since the peak of the housing bubble in 2007. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) started producing a Residential Property Price Index in January 2005 with a base figure of 100 and by 2007 the Index had averaged 130.3. In fact, the actual peak of the bubble was April 2007 when the Index reached 131.0 a 31% increase in house prices since January 2005. By December 2007 the Index had fallen to 129.2. Although very few realised it (or accepted it) at the time, the crash had started, there wasn’t going to be a soft landing.

By the end of 2008 prices had fallen by 7% in the year but the effect of the banking crisis accelerated the collapse in houses prices in 2009 with a fall of 19.2% in the year. The crash continued for another three years with falls in 2010 (13.5%), 2011 (16.2%) and 2012 (13.8%). The bottom of the market was reached in March 2013 when the CSO Index reached 59.7, a 55% fall from the peak. To give you some local examples, we sold a 3 bed semi with a garage for €300,000 in May 2007 and we sold the same house type in the same estate in September 2012 for €139,500, a 54% decrease.  A standard 3 bed semi-detached fell from €285,000 to €135,000. The higher end of the market was even more severely hit. In one example we sold a house in the summer of 2007 and sold the same house type a few doors away in February 2012 for €420,000 less.

Thankfully the market turned the corner in 2013 and there have been 3 consecutive years of strong price growth since with the CSO index now at 89.8, a 47% increase since August 2012. A typical 3 bed semi in Tramore is now selling at €195,000, a 45% increase, in line with the CSO figures but still 31% down on peak prices.

House prices to rise for up to 10 years - property report

House prices are shooting up by €2,000 a month and are now almost 12pc higher than they were a year ago.

Property price rises in Dublin are back outpacing the rest of the country, according to the latest report from property website Daft.ie, and it warned that prices will continue to rise for the next five to 10 years unless drastic action is taken.

The surge in prices is tempting more people to sell, with the number of properties being listed for sale continuing to rise.

More than 6,000 properties were listed for sale in May, the highest monthly total since the middle of 2008.

But it is nowhere near enough to meet demand, housing experts said.

The latest evidence of the ongoing surge in prices comes as the Government said it is reviewing the help-to-buy scheme, a move that prompted fears of a rush to buy in the coming months.

The national average list price during the second quarter of the year was €240,000,

This was 11.7pc higher than a year previously.

Prices are rising at a rate of €2,000 a month nationally, Daft.ie said.

For the April to June period there was a rise of 4.3pc in prices, which matched the rise in the first quarter.

The move by the Central Bank to relax strict lending rules for first-time buyers has seen property inflation in Dublin outstrip rises in the rest of the country.

Dublin prices jumped by 12.3pc in the year to June, to an average of €353,000.

This was higher than the 11.3pc recorded by Daft.ie in the rest of the country.

It was the first time since early 2015 that the rate of rise in the capital was greater than that in the rest of the State.

However, some cities have seen even stronger price surges than in Dublin.

In Galway, Limerick and Waterford the annual change in prices is even higher and is closer to 15pc, while in Cork city the rise is 9.2pc.

Elsewhere in the country, the average rate of inflation was 11.2pc, but this varied from 7.8pc in Connacht-Ulster to 13.4pc in the parts of Leinster that exclude Dublin.

And there is evidence that properties for sale are being snapped up quickly.

There were just 22,400 properties sitting on the market in June. This is higher than three months earlier but it is 11pc lower than the same time last year, and roughly two-thirds below the 2008 peak.

Ronan Lyons, economist at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft.ie report, said the move by the Central Bank to relax lending rules for first-time buyers, after two years, had helped drive prices further up.

"Whereas non-urban markets had driven house price growth in 2015 and 2016, Dublin again is seeing increases that are above the national average," he added.

He said that the rises meant it was even more important to address the high construction costs that are limiting the ability of supply to meet strong demand. The Daft.ie report shows the average price in Cork city is now €256,201, after a 9.2pc rise in the past year.

In Galway city properties are changing hands for an average of €268,535.

Limerick city has seen a 15pc surge in prices in the last year to €177,200, while in Waterford city prices are up 14.5pc to €158,861, according to the Daft.ie data.

Mr Lyons said house will continue to rise for the next five to 10 years unless drastic action is taken, saying the high cost of constructing properties such as apartments needs to be tackled by the Government.

Irish Independent